Saturday AM update: Jeffrey Wells is reporting that based on Friday estimates National Treasure 2 is on track for a $50+million weekend, with Sweeney Todd making 14 million. The prophets were right. I was ridiculously wrong. That’ll teach me.

Original posting, Friday AM:

I don’t do weekend box-office predictions. I just don’t have the data, and I can’t really tap into the collective consciousness. But I do like the odd “what-if” speculation game.

Three weeks ago I posted a poll over at my good friends of Poll’s Boutique and asked readers which of these high profile releases they are planning to see December 21st. Though this can cannot be seen as anything remotely valid it did spark my curiosity: 49% said they’d go see Tim Burton’s Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street. Only 22% picked National Treasure: Book of Secrets. Today I see that MCN’s box office gurus are predicting Book of Secrets will finish the weekend on top with 44-55 million dollars in the bank. Sweeney Todd, rolling out on only 1200 screens, is expected to come in sixth with 10-13 million dollars.


weekend box office predictions

But what if…?

What if most young teens, both male and female, who are supposed to flock to National Treasure get a sudden whiff of the pile of shit this movie probably is and while standing in line seeing the Sweeney Todd trailer playing on the LCD screen they say to themselves - “Hmmm… this looks like a slasher movie” (boys) and “Hmmmm… Johnny Depp” (girls) and they dump Nic Cave and go for Sweeney Todd. Which could make Book of Secrets the Lara Croft: Cradle of Life of 2007.

So what if… Sweeney Todd makes something between 26 and 30 million dollars this weekend, on only 1200 screens, averaging 21,000 to 28,000 dollars per screen, and Book of Secrets belly-flops with 20-22 million dollars? Meaning that I am Legend could remain at #1 and Sweeney Todd wows and takes the #2 spot. Or: if I am Legend takes a bigger drop, Sweeney Todd could actually become the #1 movie in America, with Book of Secrets debuting at number 4.

Could this happen? Am I only fantasizing of a reality in which ticket buyers don’t just heap the movie most advertised but the movie with the better chances of turning out spectacular?
Come Sunday morning I’ll find out whether I’ll be too humiliated to ever consider making this kind of speculation again. Check back.