Sat 22 Dec 2007
Scott Feinberg names these five films as Best Picture Nominees:
(1) Juno (Fox Searchlight)
(2) No Country for Old Men (Miramax)
(3) Atonement (Focus Features)
(4) Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage)
(5) The Diving Bell and Butterfly (Miramax)
This sounds almost perfect. But still, something is off… Juno.
Sasha Stone is still mulling around with an incomplete list:
No Country for Old Men
Michael Clayton
Atonement
American Gangster
…
And then one of three: Into the Wild (most likely), There Will Be Blood or Sweeney Todd.
American Gangster!? Does this one still have a chance? How can anyone still like American Gangster after seeing There Will Be Blood? Michael Clayton!? I don’t know. I can’t see it.
David Poland has four films locked: No Country For Old Men, Michael Clayton, Sweeney Todd, Atonement. And then five others for the last slot.
Anne Thompson, an ace Oscar predictor in my eyes, is considering (on the Guru’s o’ Gold chart) these five: No Country for Old Men, Atonement, American Gangster, Sweeney Todd, Juno.
Jeffrey Wells, in his Oscar Balloon feature has listed: No Country for Old Men, Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, There Will Be Blood, Juno.
Most Oscar Prognosticators said this before: this is an exceptional year because there really are many great movie to confuse us. And these prophecies, I believe, will be similar to the actual ballots. But what will be the final tally?
The good thing that happened so far is that The Kite Runner and Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead have dropped up from consideration. I never did see them as true contenders.
Here is my problem: American Gangster? Michael Clayton? Juno? I just can’t imagine any of those as Best Picture nominees. Maybe it’s because I didn’t flip over any of these. And maybe it’s moronic to hope that ALL five nominees will all be my favorites (although I adore There Will Be Blood but I can’t imagine it nabbing a Best Picture nomination).
So, these are my five Best Picture nominees:
- No Country For Old Men
- Atonement
- Into the Wild
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- Sweeney Todd
This list sounds perfect to me. The only problem is that it’s probably too perfect. But I’m sticking with this one for now.
December 23rd, 2007 at 4:57 am
I get this strange feeling that Atonement might be left out of the Best Picture category. I mean, with all those Tiz-A-Nabi critic awards, where is this film?
My take, for the moment:
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Juno
Into the Wild
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
December 24th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
Penguin’s list is a likely one in my opinion, but I’m still not sold on “Into The Wild”.
My BP predictions, in order of likelihood:
1. No Country For Old Men
2. There Will Be Blood
3. Juno
4. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
5. Michael Clayton
6. Into The Wild
——-
Now, if you’re bored, here’s why.
Yair, Juno should be the last one on the list of your questionable predictions. American Gangster is a long shot right now, but Juno is almost a shoe-in.
The Academy cannot and will not go for an all dark/heavy top 5. There are barely any light alternatives out there (Charlie Wilson’s War is one, but its lack of buzz and lackluster boxoffice performance are not doing it any favors) and Juno’s momentum is getting bigger by the day. I think it’s an easy placement in the BP lineup and has a great shot at getting the best original screenplay win (a-la Little Miss Sunshine of last year).
No Country For Old Men is the biggest lock there is, followed by There Will Be Blood (even if they don’t love PT Anderson, the critical reception is unavoidable).
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly seems like a solid pick.
Sweeney Todd is out (they’ve never given Burton a chance, they won’t start now)
Which leaves me with the last spot: Atonement vs. Michael Clayton vs. Into The Wild. I fear Atonement will relive Cold Mountain’s fate (a damn shame) and I just can’t buy Into The Wild for some reason.