Tue 1 Jan 2008
Up until now I’ve played down my Oscar expectations from Paul Thomas Anderson’s “There Will Be Blood“. My rationale was defeatist: “this movie is just too brilliant to be recognized in real-time by Oscar voters”. And it seemed that the other “desert movie” (”No Country for Old Men”) has a bigger and more vocal following. But over the last few days I’ve played and replayed “Blood” and “Old Men” in my head and and if the impact that these two movies have on me is anything close to what Academy voters think of them, then I must revise my prediction: “There Will Be Blood” will be much bigger at the Oscars than most expect. Best picture nominee for sure (well, I think…). In fact, as support for this movie will grow it may come at the expense of “No Country for Old Men”. It’s now easier for me to imagine a Best Picture category that has TWBB but not NCFOM.
Also: I think most Oscar predictors are underestimating “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” and “Sweeney Todd” and overestimating “Michael Clayton” and “American Gangster”.
So my current Best Picture nominees are:
- No Country for Old Men (but dropping)
- There Will Be Blood (rising fast)
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (because you can’t have an Oscar without a based-on-novel-based-on-a-harrowing-tragic-but-life-affirming-true-story)
- Sweeney Todd (got to have a musical, and Hairspray is just too light-weight)
And…
I dunno… Juno? Atonement? One is for the younger voters, one is for the elderly academy members. Who’ll out-weigh who? Plus: they both will be in, if the shocker will happen and NCFOM will indeed drop out (or it will be revealed that I have overestimated “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”)
January 2nd, 2008 at 3:18 pm
I think you are missing a point.
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is a French speaking film. This is going to be his disatvantage point. For most voters he should be placed in the Non English speaking film. Atonement is going to be nominated for sure becasue it is also a good movie. It has an appeal for eveyone, not only for elderly voters.
January 4th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Although I haven’t seen “There Will Blood”(it hasn’t opened anywhere NEAR my smallish Alabama town), the critical consensus is becoming overwhelming here in the U.S. LA Voice/Village Voice critics poll just voted it way out in first place. (not that critical consensus ever affected the Oscars all that much).
I think it’ll probably get a bunch of nominations and win some technical Awards and maybe an acting Oscar, kind of like my personal favorite, “No Country for Old Men.”
Shai’s right, I think. Diving Bell will be a shoe-in for best foreign film, but probably not nominated for best picture.
January 5th, 2008 at 9:54 am
I have to say that The Diving Bell can’t be nominated for best foreign film as France has decided to send another film for that category.
January 6th, 2008 at 9:14 am
“No Country For Old Men” is not even close to losing its front-runner spot. “There Will Be Blood” is getting stronger because it’s one of few cases where the [late] release date comes at a perfect time and increases the momentum created by critical buzz. Keep in mind however, this is a three-hour film which has yet to open nationwide.
The academy’s “taste” becomes closer each year to the critics (or the other way around, depends how you look at it) and yet there is always at least one mainstream (or better yet “popular”) nominee whose strength is at its box office success. SAG noms gave some obscure possibilities (3:10 to Yuma, Hairspray, American Gangster) but you have to consider “Juno” as the one to fill this spot. It can reach $100m by Oscar’s time, it’s a critics favorite and it’s light-weight. “Sweeney Todd” is exactly the opposite.
January 7th, 2008 at 9:05 am
I don’t understand why people love Sweeny Tod that much!?? I didn’t like it! and I hope it will not get a nomination!