Cinemascope

I honestly thought Israel will finally win its first Oscar, and will do it with an outstanding film as “Waltz With Bashir”. But with the Oscar’s only upset of the evening, the award went to the Japanese “Departures”.

I’ve experienced symptoms similar to heartbreak since. better.

By the way: how do you say Oscar Scandal in Hebrew? The same but in reverse: Scandal Oscar.

They are not that radically different from the rest of the pack. If not for “Bashir” this has got to be quite the boring year.

Best Picture:
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Best Director:
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

(I tried to argue two weeks ago that Stephen Daldry has the potential to throw a Polanski and win, but everyone said I was crazy and should drop it. So I did.)

Best Actor:
Sean Penn, “Milk”

(Many think that Mickey Rourke will beat him by a nose. I don’t).

Best Actress:
Kate Winslet, “The Reader”

(Holocaust, an accent, a tragedy: she’s doing exactly what Meryl Streep did 20 years ago to win hers).

Best Supporting Actor:
Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”

(I don’t know, the academy is acting like a herd, with no independent thinking? I’d love a surprise here).

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, “Doubt”

(Many bet on Penelope Cruz here. I don’t quite know why - except for Woody Allen’s track record as a director of Supporting Actress winning roles. But Cruz is no Diane Wiest. Davis will be a token winner - a token for “Doubt”, the token African-American winner - for her token role).

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire”

(”The Dark Knight”’s screenplay was way better, but this is not about the writing, is it?)

Best Original Screenplay:
Andrew Stanton and co., “Wall-E”

(I was sure I’m going to pick “Milk” here. It’s the obvious choice. The Original Screenplay award is usually the consolation prize for a Best Picture nominee that won’t win, but was a critical darling with an independent voice. It dates all the way back to “Citizen Kane” but the more recent “Pulp Fiction”, “Little Miss Sunshine” and “Juno” are the adequate examples. And yet I went against my better judgment just because I think “Wall-E”’s script was superior, and this indeed a consolation prize for a Best Picture nomination that should’ve been).

Best Score:
A.R Rahman, “Slumdog Millionaire”

(I would’ve preferred Thomas Newman, the best composer out there today, to win for “Wall-E”. Thing is, there were three reasons “Slumdog” was so enjoyable: the music, the cinematography and the editing. I believe it will win all of them).

Best Song
“O Saya”, A.R Rahman at al

(Actually, it’s a toss up. What would academy members like more the first song in the movie, in that wonderfully dizzying chase sequence, or the last one, with which you go out of the theater. I chose the first one, the one that makes you go “yup, I like this movie”).

Foreign Language Film:
“Waltz With Bashir”, Israel

(My home team. But last year the wonderful “Beaufort” was there and I didn’t bet on it, so it’s not about patriotism. “Bashir” has to win. It’s simply the best of the five. But will older academy voters go for an animated film? I hope they do. And if my predictions are correct and “Bashir” wins and “Wall-E” takes home at least three prizes this will be a banner year for animation).

Best Documentary:
“Man On Wire”

(Brilliant filmmaking in the Errol Morris idiom. A caper that’s actually about 9/11 without the words “9/11″ ever mentioned, a period piece about the Nixon regime, without the word “Nixon” ever uttered. A great metaphor of a movie).

Best Animated Feature:
“Wall-E”

Best Animated Short:
“Lavatory - Lovestory”

(I saw four of the five nominees. The Russian “Lavatory - Lovestory” has the biggest heart).

Best Live Action Short:
“New Boy”

(This is the only one I saw of the five but I thought it was wonderful).

Best Documentary Short:
“The Witness”

(I’m guessing. Haven’t seen any).

Art Direction:
“Benjamin Button”

(Though I’m not ruling out a “Dark Knight” takeover)

Costume Design:
“The Duchess”

(Remember last year’s “Elizabeth - The Golden Age”? it’s about the dresses, not the movie).

Sound Mixing:
“Wall-E”

(The “Dark Knight” - being the loudest - is the more obvious choice. But I hope academy members remember that voting for Ben Burtt’s recording is actually voting for the guy who voice the title character. In “Wall-E” the Sound Mixing category is actually an acting nod).

Sound Editing:
“The Dark Knight”

(Although a “Wall-E” double header would be great).

Special Effects:
“Benjamin Button”

Cinematography:
“Slumdog Millionaire”

(Tough one: will the beautiful “Benjamin Button” and the IMAX grandiosity of “The Dark Knight” lose to a hand-held shot film. I believe so).

Editing:
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Make Up:
“Benjamin Button”

There you have it. All 24 awards.

What do you think? With how many of these do you agree? Fell free to post links to your own Oscar Predictions in the comments.

A source close to the Oscar production at the Kodak theater has managed to peek at the rundown. He tells me that the total length of the broadcast clocks at 3:15 hours, and the Oscars are due to end at 8:45pm PT.

Although the production book doesn’t list the awards presenters, or performers (all marked as TBA), it does offer a glimpse as to what’s in store. One segment is “Hugh at the Piano”, another is a 4:00 minute production number.

The show is divided into five parts, each one highlighting a process in the making of a movie, with the subsequent awards mirroring that theme. Part 1 is The Blank Page. Part 2 is production (with the art direction, make up and costume awards following). Part 3 is Cinematography. Part 4 is Post Production (editing, sound, SFX). Part 5 is Scoring. And then it’s time for the big awards which obviously don’t need a user manual to make them viewer friendly.

More: maybe as a way to remind viewers that there were more movies made in 2008 then the high-brow ones released in December and nominated for the Oscars, five montage sequences titled “2008 yearbook” will be spread throughout the show, summing the year in various genres: Animated Film, Romance, Comedy, Documentary Film, and Action.

The awards line-up, as dictated to me by my source, is (all times Pacific):

5:38: Hugh’s opening performance

5:45:AWARD #1
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

5:51: AWARD #2:
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

5:55: AWARD #3
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

6:03: AWARD #4
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

6:05: AWARD #5
ANIMATED SHORT FILM

6:14: AWARD #6
ART DIRECTION

6:18: AWARD #7
COSTUME DESIGN

6:20: AWARD #8
MAKEUP

6:30: AWARD #9
CINEMATOGRAPHY

6:36: SCI-TECH AWARDS RECAP

6:41: AWARD #10
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

7:03: AWARD #11
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

7:08: AWARD #12
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

7:10: AWARD #13
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

7:20: AWARD #14
VISUAL EFFECTS

7:22: AWARD #15
SOUND EDITING

7:26: AWARD #16
SOUND MIXING

7:29: AWARD #17
FILM EDITING

7:37: JEAN HERSHOLT AWARD
TO JERRY LEWIS

7:48: AWARD #18
ORIGINAL SCORE

7:55: AWARD #19
ORIGINAL SONG

8:01: AWARD #20
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

8:10 In Memoriam

8:14: AWARD #21
DIRECTING

8:23: AWARD #22
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

8:31: AWARD #23
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

8:38: AWARD #24
BEST MOTION PICTURE

Related: Oscar 2009 - My Predictions

As far as the Israeli film industry is concerned “Bashir” is already the winner. This film, which no major feature film fund or distributor wanted to touch here in Israel before it was accepted to Cannes, is the eighth Israeli film to be nominated for a foreign language academy award (the first was Ephraim Kishon’s “Sallah” back in 1964), and the second Israeli film in a row to deal with the first Lebanon war and to be nominated for an Oscar (last year’s “Beaufort” preceded it). But it’s the first Israeli film to be the front-runner in the race (it has so far won awards as either a foreign film, an animated film or a documentary and won the Golden Globe, the DGA, the WGA, the Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards, and others). So it’s rather easy to see why it is the one destined to win the Oscar on Sunday.

But…

I’m worried. I’m worried because front-runners don’t always win in this category (remember “Amelie”?). And I’m worried because none of the directors, writers and other academy members that saw the film on screeners or in the theater are eligible to vote on it.

The thing is this: as far as I know, you have to have seen all five nominated foreign films in formal Academy screenings. Not on screeners. And it seems that the movie has garnered a lot of love, praise and awards in the last two months. But all those who have seen the movie so far have seen it in festivals, in theatrical release or on screeners. Meaning that THEY CAN”T VOTE FOR BASHIR (unless they love the movie so much they will go and re-watch it in an academy sanctioned screening so they are eligible to vote for it - and how many out there will do it?). Meaning that those who love “Bashir” now are pushed aside and the voting for the Oscars will be done by those members of the Academy that are now seeing it for the first time. “Bashir” will have to win them over.

I consider myself as a rather fine Oscar prognosticator, and I’m putting my (metaphoric) money on “Bashir” to win. But what if my personal pride, as an Israeli, is clouding my judgment? So I asked some of the best Oscar callers I know for their insight, with one question only: Will “Bashir” Win?

First up is Gold Derby’s Tom O’Neil. He is rather pessimistic:

The whole academy doesn’t vote for best foreign film, only members who attend screenings. So there are only a few hundred voters who’ll decide that race. While the film was a huge hit with critics, and it’s widely considered to be the front-runner at the Oscars, victory is not assured. Many academy members don’t like it, think it’s boring and too smug, too whiny. Remember, it was eligible for best animated feature, but voters preferred “Bolt” — about a delusional superhero dog — over “Bashir” for that third slot.
I haven’t seen all of the films in that race, but I hear from some voters that the Japanese nominee is amazing. It might topple “Bashir.”

Oh dear. But O’Neil’s colleague at the L.A. Times’ awards site, The Envelope, Scott Feinberg is more optimistic. Luckily for me, Feinberg is also one of the best Oscar prognosticators out-there:

I have seen all of this year’s major foreign language contenders, but unfortunately neither I nor anyone other than the Academy’s foreign language committee members have seen them at Academy screenings, which are quite guarded. I do, however, speak with many voters and publicists for the films, who are the only non-voters allowed in, and so I think I have a good grasp on the race.
At the moment, I am projecting that “Waltz with Bashir” will win, but I say this with great caution because the Academy never ceases to surprise us when it comes to foreign language films.
The overall Academy, though, tends to reward the film that has the highest profile, which “Waltz” certainly does after winning most of the major precursor awards and generating significant discussion about both its content and unique aesthetics. If there were to be an upset, I’d expect that it would come from Germany’s “The Baader-Meinhof Complex,” which is a based-on-fact drama that is packed with action and consequently might have resonated more with voters than an animated documentary, or “The Class,” which won the Palm d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, but both are overlong and come from countries that have been recognized in this category often in the past. I suspect that Academy members — many of whom are Jewish and/or sympathetic to Israel — will seize this rare opportunity to honor a worthy Israeli film, especially at a time when the present conflict in the Middle East is very much on their minds.

Next up is Hollywood Elsewhere’s Jeffrey Wells, who lays it out straight:

It will be a travesty if Waltz With Bashir doesn’t win, I’ll tell you that. I don’t know from the technical rules wallah-wallah. This is the most original and morally disturbing (and yet enlightening) film in the foreign competition by far. But never assume wisdom on the part of the Academy. They have embarrassed themselves before and they will do so again.

Last up is Rod Lurie. Lurie is now a wonderful filmmaker (”The Contender”), but before that he was a film critic and he still has the film critic hobby: predicting the Oscars. So I asked him to take part, and he did:

It would be hard for me to believe that “Waltz With Bashir” is not going to win the Academy Award for best Foreign Language Picture. In fact I know many people who are also voted for it to be nominated in the documentary category and animated feature category. It’s a bit of a sensation among cineasts and Academy members - all of whom have received screeners over the past couple of months. It is true that the film can only be voted on by people who have only seen all five of the nominated films - meaning that it must stand on its own merits. However, that is a plus - it really is one of the most innovative and fascinating movies to come out of any country in the past several years - a real advancement in cinema, if you ask me.

I wanted three more predictions - from Sasha Stone, David Poland and Anne Thompson - and I got them from the Gurus o’ Gold chart, all three are betting on “Bashir”, but some are put their money on three of the other four nominees.

So what did I learn? That “Bashir” is indeed ahead, but an upset is not out of the question. There was one more person I wanted to poll: Ari Folman himself. I met him on Sunday in his office in Tel Aviv when
was kind enough to take the time and answer questions from my readers (over on my Hebrew blog).
“I’m worried about Sunday night”, I told him, “It’s not in the bag yet”. “Yeah”, he answered, “you look more worried then me”.
“How come you’re not in Hollywood making sure every Academy member sees your movie in an Academy screening?”. “I had to come back for a family affair, but the job is done by the Sony Pictures Classics guys, and they are pros”. “How are you not stressed up?”, I asked. “Look”, replied Folman, “I’m an optimist by nature. I think everything will be allright and that we’ll win. And if we won’t we won’t”.

Ari Folman (bearded) and myself during the “Cinemascope” online chat with readers, Sunday

I hosted Ari Folman, director of “Waltz With Bashir”, for a live online chat with “Cinemascope” readers (over at the Hebrew version of this blog). For over three hours he graciously answered questions posted by my readers and his fans.

Several of the questions related to his Golden Globe acceptance speech, where he recycled the same speech he gave some months back at the Ophir Awards (Israel’s Academy awards). Some were disappointed he recycled his material, others were made he didn’t use the live prime-time broadcast to make a bold statement against the war in Gaza (this was the day before the cease-fire). To those he said “Given 40 seconds, I’d rather thank the people that gave everything to me and the movie for four years then to make an anti-war statement that’s anyway inherent in the movie”. As for the recycled part he said the only time he prepared a speech in advance was at the Cannes Film Festival, and then he didn’t win anything. So from there on he decided to ad-lib his speeches as they came.

And this is where we hatched this idea: why not have “Cinemascope” readers write Ari Folman’s Oscar speech, in the event he indeed does win the Foreign Language Oscar on Sunday (A three-way first: First Oscar for an Israeli film after eight nominations, first win for an animated movie and first win for a documentary).
Folman promises this: he will read all suggestion between now and Sunday. And if he reads something genuinely brilliant he will not hesitate to use it on live TV.

Do you think you know what the director of this year’s most innovative movie should do and say on stage on Oscar night? If so, pitch it here. I’ll make sure Folman sees it. No credit or royalties are promised, but if you sign with your real name and then hear your quip delivered live, in front of an audience of a billion viewers, imagine the bragging rights you gain.

You have 45 seconds to wow international audiences, in a category that most TV watchers know nothing about. 45 seconds are about 90 words. What would you do or say on stage that would be both respectful to the film but memorable. Would you say something zany or heartfelt? Would you say something bold and political, or something personal? Would you you use some kind of prop, a flag perhaps?

The comments section is yours. Write an Oscar speech for “Waltz With Bashir” and who knows, you can hear your words live Sunday.

Hey there all,

On Sunday I will host Ari Folman - Oscar nominated for “Waltz With Bashir” - for a live Q&A session over on my Hebrew version of “Cinemascope”. If you read and write Hebrew you can hop on over to the live-blog page and leave a question you want Folman to answer, then check back on Sunday (2:00pm Tel Aviv time, 12:00pm GMT, 7:00am ET) to take part in the live discussion.
If you can’t read Hebrew, fear not: leave your question to Ari Folman here, and I’ll get it to him, and then translate the answer back here.

Two days after he does this exclusive live-chat with “Cinemascope” readers he’ll fly out to Hollywood to get ready for the Oscars.

And this is the time to look into the future: Will “Waltz With Bashir” be the first ever Israeli movie to win an Academy Award? What do you think?

Related: Ari Folman’s next project

In which I will try to persuade you that although “Slumdog Millionaire” is the certain Best Picture winner, there is still a chance for a surprise win to baffle prognosticators: Stephen Daldry is a very probable winner for Best Director for “The Reader”.

The BAFTAs are two hours away, and the Oscars are two weeks away and it seems the race is locked. “Slumdog Millionaire” is everyone’s favorite cinderella, winning every guild prize possible. Any gambler looking to be safe on Oscar night should bet on “Slumdog” winning both Best Picture and Best Director (after walking away with the prizes by the DGA, PGA and SAG). “Slumdog” should walk away also with Oscars for Best Editing, Best Score and possibly also Best Cinematography (making it the first HD movie to win that prize).

But I’m mixed. I liked “Slumdog Millionaire” a lot, but not all that much. I don’t share Hollywood’s crush on the film. If I were an Academy member I wouldn’t have voted for it.

So for the sake of some suspense, and in hopes that the “Slumdog” juggernaut slows down a bit I propose to see “Slumdog” in context: how will we see that movie in, say, 10 years. Wouldn’t it be considered a rather slight movie to have won Best Picture?

I feel for “Slumdog” exactly the same way I felt for “Driving Miss Daisy”, “Shakespeare in Love” and “Chicago”: all three films were highly enjoyable but all three, I felt, were too minor to be Best Picture. As with “Driving Miss Daisy”, “Slumdog” has that “important” social theme, made timely by the terror attack on Mumbai earlier this year. And as with “Shakespeare in Love” and “Chicago” it has an infectious groove, speed and tempo to it that sends the audience out of the theater whirring with adrenaline.

Now: all three movies won Best Picture but lost Best Director. “Driving” and “Shakespeare” lost to a war movie in the director category (”Born on the Fourth of July” and “Saving Private Ryan”). So the “Slumdog”/”Chicago” comparison is the most appropriate. “Chicago” lost for a Holocaust movie (”The Pianist”), I’m starting to believe that the same will happen with “Slumdog”.

Why?

- “The Reader” is more loved by the Academy than we give it credit.
- It’s a Holocaust movie, therefore IMPORTANT.
- It will be a tribute to Sydney Pollack and Anthony Minghella, the film’s producers, who both died tis year.
- The Nikki Finke excuse: it will be an “up yours” to Harvey Weinstein and an “all hail” to Scott Rudin who fought Weinstein through post-production.
- The “due” aspect: Danny Boyle isn’t due, but Stephen Daldry is. He’s the Academy’s favorite sex-toy: he has made three films and was nominated as Best Director on all three (!). I think the Academy will now consummate the affair.

If you want to be bold and astound your colleagues in your office Oscar pool, put your money on Stephen Daldry for Best Director.

But then again, I could be blamed for trying to inject some artificial suspense into an Oscar race that’s done and shut and over with. Boyle wins and that’s that. But I don’t know. It’s just too boring to be it.

I have four of the five Oscar nominated animated shorts right here, they are all silent - i.e, without any dialogue - and quite funny. Of the four, I see the Russian “Lavatory - Lovestory” as a potential winner. It has a heart.

Oktapodi
Directors: Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand
Actually, I think it’s a squid. This swift comic adventure - produced in France but located on a Greek island - should be expanded into a feature film.

(via Slashfilm)

Lavatory - Lovestory
Director: Konstantin Bronzit
As opposed to the other shorts here, all done in 3D animation, this is animation at its simplest - few squiggly lines and a story that’s utterly Chaplinesque.

This Way Up
Directors: Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes
It’s “Zig Zag Story” meets “Six Feet Under” meets Polanski’s thesis short “Two Men and a Wardrobe” (turned into “Two Men and a Coffin” here). This British short has a great first five minutes, but the last three minutes turn in into a Tom Burton/Henry Selick wannabe.

Presto
Director: Doug Sweetland
The Pixar short that played in front of “Wall-E” in theaters. It’s a hilarious Warner-Brothers-style cartoon that boasts the best animation and a lightening quick pace for comedy. The academy - whose members snubbed “Wall-E” for “Slumdog” will do the same here: I predict the hand-drawn Russian toilet woman will beat the high-tech Disney wizardry.

Absent is the Japanese/French “La Maison en Petits Cubes” directed by Kunio Kato.