As far as the Israeli film industry is concerned “Bashir” is already the winner. This film, which no major feature film fund or distributor wanted to touch here in Israel before it was accepted to Cannes, is the eighth Israeli film to be nominated for a foreign language academy award (the first was Ephraim Kishon’s “Sallah” back in 1964), and the second Israeli film in a row to deal with the first Lebanon war and to be nominated for an Oscar (last year’s “Beaufort” preceded it). But it’s the first Israeli film to be the front-runner in the race (it has so far won awards as either a foreign film, an animated film or a documentary and won the Golden Globe, the DGA, the WGA, the Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards, and others). So it’s rather easy to see why it is the one destined to win the Oscar on Sunday.

But…

I’m worried. I’m worried because front-runners don’t always win in this category (remember “Amelie”?). And I’m worried because none of the directors, writers and other academy members that saw the film on screeners or in the theater are eligible to vote on it.

The thing is this: as far as I know, you have to have seen all five nominated foreign films in formal Academy screenings. Not on screeners. And it seems that the movie has garnered a lot of love, praise and awards in the last two months. But all those who have seen the movie so far have seen it in festivals, in theatrical release or on screeners. Meaning that THEY CAN”T VOTE FOR BASHIR (unless they love the movie so much they will go and re-watch it in an academy sanctioned screening so they are eligible to vote for it - and how many out there will do it?). Meaning that those who love “Bashir” now are pushed aside and the voting for the Oscars will be done by those members of the Academy that are now seeing it for the first time. “Bashir” will have to win them over.

I consider myself as a rather fine Oscar prognosticator, and I’m putting my (metaphoric) money on “Bashir” to win. But what if my personal pride, as an Israeli, is clouding my judgment? So I asked some of the best Oscar callers I know for their insight, with one question only: Will “Bashir” Win?

First up is Gold Derby’s Tom O’Neil. He is rather pessimistic:

The whole academy doesn’t vote for best foreign film, only members who attend screenings. So there are only a few hundred voters who’ll decide that race. While the film was a huge hit with critics, and it’s widely considered to be the front-runner at the Oscars, victory is not assured. Many academy members don’t like it, think it’s boring and too smug, too whiny. Remember, it was eligible for best animated feature, but voters preferred “Bolt” — about a delusional superhero dog — over “Bashir” for that third slot.
I haven’t seen all of the films in that race, but I hear from some voters that the Japanese nominee is amazing. It might topple “Bashir.”

Oh dear. But O’Neil’s colleague at the L.A. Times’ awards site, The Envelope, Scott Feinberg is more optimistic. Luckily for me, Feinberg is also one of the best Oscar prognosticators out-there:

I have seen all of this year’s major foreign language contenders, but unfortunately neither I nor anyone other than the Academy’s foreign language committee members have seen them at Academy screenings, which are quite guarded. I do, however, speak with many voters and publicists for the films, who are the only non-voters allowed in, and so I think I have a good grasp on the race.
At the moment, I am projecting that “Waltz with Bashir” will win, but I say this with great caution because the Academy never ceases to surprise us when it comes to foreign language films.
The overall Academy, though, tends to reward the film that has the highest profile, which “Waltz” certainly does after winning most of the major precursor awards and generating significant discussion about both its content and unique aesthetics. If there were to be an upset, I’d expect that it would come from Germany’s “The Baader-Meinhof Complex,” which is a based-on-fact drama that is packed with action and consequently might have resonated more with voters than an animated documentary, or “The Class,” which won the Palm d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, but both are overlong and come from countries that have been recognized in this category often in the past. I suspect that Academy members — many of whom are Jewish and/or sympathetic to Israel — will seize this rare opportunity to honor a worthy Israeli film, especially at a time when the present conflict in the Middle East is very much on their minds.

Next up is Hollywood Elsewhere’s Jeffrey Wells, who lays it out straight:

It will be a travesty if Waltz With Bashir doesn’t win, I’ll tell you that. I don’t know from the technical rules wallah-wallah. This is the most original and morally disturbing (and yet enlightening) film in the foreign competition by far. But never assume wisdom on the part of the Academy. They have embarrassed themselves before and they will do so again.

Last up is Rod Lurie. Lurie is now a wonderful filmmaker (”The Contender”), but before that he was a film critic and he still has the film critic hobby: predicting the Oscars. So I asked him to take part, and he did:

It would be hard for me to believe that “Waltz With Bashir” is not going to win the Academy Award for best Foreign Language Picture. In fact I know many people who are also voted for it to be nominated in the documentary category and animated feature category. It’s a bit of a sensation among cineasts and Academy members - all of whom have received screeners over the past couple of months. It is true that the film can only be voted on by people who have only seen all five of the nominated films - meaning that it must stand on its own merits. However, that is a plus - it really is one of the most innovative and fascinating movies to come out of any country in the past several years - a real advancement in cinema, if you ask me.

I wanted three more predictions - from Sasha Stone, David Poland and Anne Thompson - and I got them from the Gurus o’ Gold chart, all three are betting on “Bashir”, but some are put their money on three of the other four nominees.

bashir is ahead, but the rest are still a threat

So what did I learn? That “Bashir” is indeed ahead, but an upset is not out of the question. There was one more person I wanted to poll: Ari Folman himself. I met him on Sunday in his office in Tel Aviv when
was kind enough to take the time and answer questions from my readers (over on my Hebrew blog).
“I’m worried about Sunday night”, I told him, “It’s not in the bag yet”. “Yeah”, he answered, “you look more worried then me”.
“How come you’re not in Hollywood making sure every Academy member sees your movie in an Academy screening?”. “I had to come back for a family affair, but the job is done by the Sony Pictures Classics guys, and they are pros”. “How are you not stressed up?”, I asked. “Look”, replied Folman, “I’m an optimist by nature. I think everything will be allright and that we’ll win. And if we won’t we won’t”.