Now that “Lebanon” left Venice with the top-prize (a first time ever in Israeli film history: they won acting awards in Cannes and directing awards in Berlin, but never a Golden anything in Cannes-Berlin-Venice), and left Toronto with a US distribution deal with Sony Pictures Classics (who previously released “The Band’s Visit” and “Waltz With Bashir”), it begs to ask: can “Lebanon” follow in “Bashir” and “Beaufort” footsteps and be nominated for a Foreign Language Oscar? Thus, becoming not only the third movie in a row nominated from Israel (a feat that will echo the Israeli successes at the Oscars in 1972-1973-1974), but also the third cosecutive film from Israel dealing with the trauma of the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon (from the point of view of the soldiers in the Israeli army).

The question is: Will “Lebanon” become Israel’s Oscar entry?

The Israeli entry will be announced Saturday (Sept 26). In Israel the Best Picture winner of the Ophir Awards (Israel’s Academy Award) is the automatic Oscar entry. And although it would’ve made sense to send in “Lebanon”, making headlines in Toronto, en route to NYFF and the London FF after being the first Israeli film ever to win in Venice, the ballots closed on Sept 2nd, long before that win could influence voters.

According to my survey, the likely winner will be “Ajami”, a superb and gritty crime drama, that turns the Israeli-Arab conflict into a gangster shoot-em-up (think the Israeli “Gomorrah”). It’s a fine movie indeed, and something of a local breakthrough, but it’s hard for me to imagine it getting nominated.

By the way: the Ophir race this year is almost a three-way tie. Local hit the crowd-pleasing “A Matter of Size” (already sold for remake by Bob Weinstein’s Dimension) is not far behind in my prelimanary poll.

A tie in this race is not a far-fetched proposition (giving the Israeli academy a significant headache, as the day after the awards is the eve of Yom Kippur, when the entire country shuts down for 25 hours, leaving no more then two days until the October 1st submissions deadline for a possible second round of voting).

But should the tight race end up with a victory for “Lebanon” (thus passing “Ajami” by no more then a handful of votes), will the film be qualified for the Oscars?

Actually, it seems the people behind “Lebanon” don’t think they have a shot at winning because right now the film is due to be released in Israel only on October 15, two weeks after the American Academy’s September 30th deadline.

My guess is that “Lebanon” will be released on one screen in Israel this coming weekend, or that it was quietly released for a qualifying run out-of-town somewhere.

Check on my blog next Saturday afternoon, to find out who won.

Update: my guess was correct. “Lebanon” will be released on one screen this weekend, to qualify for the Oscars (should it become the Israeli entry).