Cinemascope

I think I kinda saw it coming. LA Weekly’s Scott Foundas (AND his mother) are shocked, but I’m not. I had a hunch, way back in December that Romania’s “4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 days” won’t make the cut at the Oscars. I also had a feeling that after all the dust around “The Band’s Visit”’s disqualification will settle, Israel’s “Beaufort” will wow viewers (it is released stateside this weekend).
And it seems that at least four of Ken Rudolph’s favorite films made it into the nine.

The Counterfeiters (Austria)
The Year My Parents Went on Vacation (Brazil)
Days of Darkness (Canada)
Beaufort (Israel)
The Unknown (Italy)
Mongol (Kazakhstan)
Katyn (Poland)
12 (Russia)
The Trap (Serbia)

But I got this wrong: I also saw France’s “Persepolis” as a front-runner to win, and it’s not there. This could now make Austria’s “The Counterfeiters” the current front-runner.

(Shout-out to Spout’s Karina for mentioning my nearly-spot-on prediction)

Oh dear. I’m really behind with my updating chores. I’ve been away for a couple of days and then took the time to bring my Hebrew language movie blog up to speed.

Few quick updates:

- Told you “Diving Bell” will be big? Told you it will be this year’s “The Pianist”? It’s happening. Julian Schnabel snatched the Golden Globe for best director right under the Coen Brothers’ nose. And the movie was just nominated for a PGA.

- The HFPA and the BAFTAs prove: those who are not American don’t quite dig “No Country For Old Men”. Heck, they don’t dig westerns. It’s too much of an American mythology. And a damn creepy one. “Unforgiven” lost the Golden Globe to “Scent of a Woman” and the BAFTA to “Howard’s End”. So “Atonement” will still probably win the BAFTA. And although it’s not on either the PGA or DGA list of nominees I still see “Atonement” as a Best Picture Oscar nominee.

- I’m still rooting for “There Will Be Blood” for Best Picture.

- Ken Rudolph, the academy member whose blogged I linked to last week, was gentleman enough to post a comment on my site:

Thanks for the kind words. However, don’t expect my favorites to make it to the final nine. Some will, most won’t. I don’t think of myself as an average member of the foreign language film committee…and history bears that out. I have just one vote; and I can attest that there is no collusion on the part of the committee members at any level. My taste for the more avant guard submissions is a minority one, for sure.

Thanks Mr. Rudolph. Your site is indeed a great read. But your comment made me think: are active Oscar voters allowed to publicly prognosticate the outcome of the Academy Awards? If there is no clause barring it, it would be great to read (either on your blog or mine) which films you voted for and which do you think have the highest chances of being nominated.

As far as I know, Ken Rudolph is the only member of the Foreign Language Oscar Committee with his own blog. There he jots down each and every movie he’s seen, with a short critique and a grade (1-4 stars).

So far he’s walked out on one movie - Singapore’s “881″, directed by Royston Tan. But he seems to enjoy a good portion of what’s screened to him.

His favorites so far (a week before the narrowing of the list to the top 9 movies to be re- screened to the committee):

SILENT LIGHT (d. Carlos Reygadis; Mexico) 3.75
THE EDGE OF HEAVEN (d. Fatih Akin; Germany) 3.75
THE TRAP (d. Srdan Golubovic; Serbia) 3.75 (a film he regards as the surprise of the batch and an overlooked gem).
I JUST DIDN’T DO IT (d. Masayuki Suo; Japan) 3.5
KATYN (d. Andrzej Wajda; Poland) 3.5
THE COUNTERFEITERS (d. Stefan Ruzowitzky; Austria) 3.5
BEN X (d. Nic Balthazar; Belgium)
BEAUFORT (d. Joseph Cedar; Israel) 3.5 (Rudolph prefers “Beaufort” to the eliminated-darling “The Band’s Visit”)

Italy’s THE UNKNOWN, Romania’s 4 MONTHS…, and France’s PERSEPOLIS are all graded with a 3.25. It now has to be seen how many of Rudolph’s top 8 favorites will also appear on his committee’s nominees.

About “Beaufort”, a personal favorite of mine, and superb film hurt by the The Band’s Visit fiasco, Rudolph writes enthusiastically:

BEAUFORT (d. Joseph Cedar; Isreal)
Israel’s original submission, The Band’s Visit , was eliminated; and lucky for us they found this replacement: a strikingly effective based-on-a-true-story of a platoon of soldiers holding an old Crusader fort in Southern Lebanon under siege by Hezbollah. The acting was superb, particularly Oshri Cohen, so memorable as the youth in Bonjour Monsieur Shlomi a few years ago. Here he is playing the platoon officer, wracked by battle fatigue and doubts about the mission. Cedar has made some good films in the past; but this tense, claustrophobic, character driven war film takes him to a new level. *** 1/2

(Hat tip: Liron)

Addendum: the kind Sasha Stone followed up on this, but gave this item her unique point of view: while I was interested in reading his remarks on the foreign language race, she noted Rudolph’s grades for the possible best picture contenders. “This, ladies and gentlemen, is your average Academy voter”, she writes of Rudolph.

Los Angeles, CA – DGA President Michael Apted today announced the five nominees for the DGA Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film for 2007.

PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON
There Will Be Blood

JOEL COEN & ETHAN COEN
No Country For Old Men

TONY GILROY
Michael Clayton

SEAN PENN
Into The Wild

JULIAN SCHNABEL
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

I told you! I said before: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly will be big.
But the race is now between “No Country” and “There will be Blood”. I’m rooting for “There Will Be Blood” for Best Picture and The Coens for Best Director.

What else did we learn?

“Sweeney Todd” is dead.
It was dead when excluded bt the BAFTA’s long-list. It’s now a corpse.
“American Gangster” is dead. GOOD! Mediocre movie with an over-eager producer.
“Juno” is dead.
(At least in the Best Picture race. It’ll walk away with best original screenplay trophy, thus killing Diablo Cody’s career, and an acting nomination for Ellen Page. And that’s it).
“Atonement” is almost dead. I still see it as a best picture nominee (without a director nod), and the clear winner of the costume and set designs, with possible wins for original score.

Whittling down the full list to a more convenient long-list, before picking the five final nominees is a very British tradition (see, for example, the Booker Prize). The BAFTAs have released their long-lists of nominees, 15 in each category, from which the BAFTA voters will now choose the 5 finalists (on January 14), from which they will choose the winner.
It’s an elegant cycle, since many smaller films will probably not make the cut for the nominations, but will have been consoled that they were nearly there. Sarah Gavron’s “Brick Lane”, and the many mentions of “Control” and “Hairspray” are - I think - such movies that will (sadly) go no much further than the long-list.

Variety’s Adam Dawtrey breaks the list down to the essentials: “Atonement” leads with 17 mentions. Next up, with 13 mentions, are “American Gangster,” “No Country for Old Men,” “There Will Be Blood”. “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” also has 13 mentions, but none for movie or director.

“The Bourne Ultimatum”, directed by a brit, has 11 entries. “Control” and “Lust, Caution”: 10 each.

“Charlie Wilson’s War” (7) “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (6) “Eastern Promises” (9), “Into the Wild” (9), “Juno” (6), “The Kite Runner” (8) “The Lives of Others” (8) and “Michael Clayton” (8). Also: “3:10 to Yuma” and “Sweeney Todd” have 9 mentions each, but not on the Best Picture ballot.

Here is the complete list:
(more…)

Up until now I’ve played down my Oscar expectations from Paul Thomas Anderson’s “There Will Be Blood“. My rationale was defeatist: “this movie is just too brilliant to be recognized in real-time by Oscar voters”. And it seemed that the other “desert movie” (”No Country for Old Men”) has a bigger and more vocal following. But over the last few days I’ve played and replayed “Blood” and “Old Men” in my head and and if the impact that these two movies have on me is anything close to what Academy voters think of them, then I must revise my prediction: “There Will Be Blood” will be much bigger at the Oscars than most expect. Best picture nominee for sure (well, I think…). In fact, as support for this movie will grow it may come at the expense of “No Country for Old Men”. It’s now easier for me to imagine a Best Picture category that has TWBB but not NCFOM.
Also: I think most Oscar predictors are underestimating “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” and “Sweeney Todd” and overestimating “Michael Clayton” and “American Gangster”.

So my current Best Picture nominees are:

- No Country for Old Men (but dropping)
- There Will Be Blood (rising fast)
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (because you can’t have an Oscar without a based-on-novel-based-on-a-harrowing-tragic-but-life-affirming-true-story)
- Sweeney Todd (got to have a musical, and Hairspray is just too light-weight)
And…

I dunno… Juno? Atonement? One is for the younger voters, one is for the elderly academy members. Who’ll out-weigh who? Plus: they both will be in, if the shocker will happen and NCFOM will indeed drop out (or it will be revealed that I have overestimated “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”)

Scott Feinberg names these five films as Best Picture Nominees:

(1) Juno (Fox Searchlight)
(2) No Country for Old Men (Miramax)
(3) Atonement (Focus Features)
(4) Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage)
(5) The Diving Bell and Butterfly (Miramax)

This sounds almost perfect. But still, something is off… Juno.

Sasha Stone is still mulling around with an incomplete list:

No Country for Old Men
Michael Clayton
Atonement
American Gangster
…
And then one of three: Into the Wild (most likely), There Will Be Blood or Sweeney Todd.

American Gangster!? Does this one still have a chance? How can anyone still like American Gangster after seeing There Will Be Blood? Michael Clayton!? I don’t know. I can’t see it.

David Poland has four films locked: No Country For Old Men, Michael Clayton, Sweeney Todd, Atonement. And then five others for the last slot.

Anne Thompson, an ace Oscar predictor in my eyes, is considering (on the Guru’s o’ Gold chart) these five: No Country for Old Men, Atonement, American Gangster, Sweeney Todd, Juno.

Jeffrey Wells, in his Oscar Balloon feature has listed: No Country for Old Men, Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, There Will Be Blood, Juno.

Most Oscar Prognosticators said this before: this is an exceptional year because there really are many great movie to confuse us. And these prophecies, I believe, will be similar to the actual ballots. But what will be the final tally?

The good thing that happened so far is that The Kite Runner and Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead have dropped up from consideration. I never did see them as true contenders.

Here is my problem: American Gangster? Michael Clayton? Juno? I just can’t imagine any of those as Best Picture nominees. Maybe it’s because I didn’t flip over any of these. And maybe it’s moronic to hope that ALL five nominees will all be my favorites (although I adore There Will Be Blood but I can’t imagine it nabbing a Best Picture nomination).

So, these are my five Best Picture nominees:

- No Country For Old Men
- Atonement
- Into the Wild
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- Sweeney Todd

This list sounds perfect to me. The only problem is that it’s probably too perfect. But I’m sticking with this one for now.

Seven nominees for Best Drama?! Lunatics!

(Have your say: are the members of the HFPA morons or saints?)

1. This is a tight race. In order to get seven (seven!) films into five slots the 90-some members of the Hollywood Foreign Press must’ve had at least three films tied. Last year they had seven nominees for BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION. This means the nomination voting process just plain sucks (or corrupt, as Scott Feinberg says).
With 90 voters it’s inevitable you get tied votes. The margin is just too small.

2. The HFPA as a group were never held in very high esteem by the American entertainment media. But The Golden Globes had a role on the calender: it helped narrow the list of Oscar hopefuls, and it’s winners were immediately considered Oscar front-runners. But having seven nominees for Best Drama is a credibility shattering move. They should have had a re-vote. Now the Golden Globes look like the laughing stock of the awards season - they are now both grovelers and a band of washed-up journos who can’t really make a clear-cut decision. What’s next? A tie for winner? That’ll be a fiasco.

3. Almost all of those I predict to be Oscar nominees are represented somewhere in the Golden Globes list (glaringly missing is Once). But The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, a sure Best Picture nominee in my opinion - is banished to the Foreign Language category.

4. I’ve seen The Savages. This ain’t no comedy, people. Really, the division between the comedy/musical is becoming more and more ridiculous as the years go by.

Here’s the list:

Nominations for the 65th Annual Golden Globes:

MOTION PICTURE

DRAMA
“American Gangster”
“Atonement”
“Eastern Promises”
“The Great Debaters”
“Michael Clayton”
“No Country For Old Men”
“There Will Be Blood”
(more…)

On Wednesday I predicted that Ratatouille and The Diving Bell and The Butterfly will both be bigger contenders this season then most expect. Meaning they will be mentioned outside their reductive slots (foreign and animation). After this evenings awards shower by the Boston, DC, LA and NY (online) critics, my prediction is now fact. Julian Schnabel was named best director in Boston, and Diving Bell was tied for best pic in NY (online critics) and runner-up in LA.
The Coen Brothers’ No Country For Old Man, an Oscar front-runner for a while already, got its position fortified with the awards this evening.

And while I’m ecstatic to see There Will Be Blood showered with love by the critics, I can’t see the movie becoming a front runner, Oscar-wise, except perhaps in the Adapted Screenplay category.

Note also that Persepolis’s numerous mentions reinforces my prediction that this is the front-runner for winning Best Foreign Language Film and also being nominated as Best Animated Feature (but losing to Ratatouille).

The complete list of Sunday’s winners (via Scott Feinberg): after the jump.
(added Monday: New York Film Critics Circle awards)
(more…)

The list:

Best Film: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Best Director: TIM BURTON, Sweeney Todd
Best Actor: GEORGE CLOONEY, Michael Clayton
Best Actress: JULIE CHRISTIE, Away From Her
Best Supporting Actor: CASEY AFFLECK, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Best Supporting Actress: AMY RYAN, Gone Baby Gone
Best Foreign Film: THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
Best Documentary: BODY OF WAR
Best Animated Feature: RATATOUILLE
Best Ensemble Cast: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: EMILE HIRSCH, Into The Wild
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: ELLEN PAGE, Juno
Best Directorial Debut: BEN AFFLECK, Gone Baby Gone
Best Original Screenplay (tie):
DIABLO CODY, Juno and NANCY OLIVER, Lars and the Real Girl
Best Adapted Screenplay: JOEL COEN and ETHAN COEN, No Country For Old Men

Top Ten Films:
(In alphabetical order)
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD
ATONEMENT
THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
THE BUCKET LIST
INTO THE WILD
JUNO
THE KITE RUNNER
LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
MICHAEL CLAYTON
SWEENEY TODD

Top Five Foreign Films:
(In alphabetical order)
4 MONTHS, 3 WEEKS, 2 DAYS
THE BAND’S VISIT
THE COUNTERFEITERS
LA VIE EN ROSE
LUST, CAUTION

Top Five Documentary Films
(In alphabetical order)
DARFUR NOW
IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON
NANKING
TAXI TO THE DARKSIDE
TOOTS

Top Independent Films
(In alphabetical order)
AWAY FROM HER
GREAT WORLD OF SOUND
HONEYDRIPPER
IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
A MIGHT HEART
THE NAMESAKE
ONCE
THE SAVAGES
STARTING OUT IN THE EVENING
WAITRESS