Cinemascope

On Wednesday I predicted that Ratatouille and The Diving Bell and The Butterfly will both be bigger contenders this season then most expect. Meaning they will be mentioned outside their reductive slots (foreign and animation). After this evenings awards shower by the Boston, DC, LA and NY (online) critics, my prediction is now fact. Julian Schnabel was named best director in Boston, and Diving Bell was tied for best pic in NY (online critics) and runner-up in LA.
The Coen Brothers’ No Country For Old Man, an Oscar front-runner for a while already, got its position fortified with the awards this evening.

And while I’m ecstatic to see There Will Be Blood showered with love by the critics, I can’t see the movie becoming a front runner, Oscar-wise, except perhaps in the Adapted Screenplay category.

Note also that Persepolis’s numerous mentions reinforces my prediction that this is the front-runner for winning Best Foreign Language Film and also being nominated as Best Animated Feature (but losing to Ratatouille).

The complete list of Sunday’s winners (via Scott Feinberg): after the jump.
(added Monday: New York Film Critics Circle awards)
(more…)

The list:

Best Film: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Best Director: TIM BURTON, Sweeney Todd
Best Actor: GEORGE CLOONEY, Michael Clayton
Best Actress: JULIE CHRISTIE, Away From Her
Best Supporting Actor: CASEY AFFLECK, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Best Supporting Actress: AMY RYAN, Gone Baby Gone
Best Foreign Film: THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
Best Documentary: BODY OF WAR
Best Animated Feature: RATATOUILLE
Best Ensemble Cast: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: EMILE HIRSCH, Into The Wild
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: ELLEN PAGE, Juno
Best Directorial Debut: BEN AFFLECK, Gone Baby Gone
Best Original Screenplay (tie):
DIABLO CODY, Juno and NANCY OLIVER, Lars and the Real Girl
Best Adapted Screenplay: JOEL COEN and ETHAN COEN, No Country For Old Men

Top Ten Films:
(In alphabetical order)
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD
ATONEMENT
THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
THE BUCKET LIST
INTO THE WILD
JUNO
THE KITE RUNNER
LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
MICHAEL CLAYTON
SWEENEY TODD

Top Five Foreign Films:
(In alphabetical order)
4 MONTHS, 3 WEEKS, 2 DAYS
THE BAND’S VISIT
THE COUNTERFEITERS
LA VIE EN ROSE
LUST, CAUTION

Top Five Documentary Films
(In alphabetical order)
DARFUR NOW
IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON
NANKING
TAXI TO THE DARKSIDE
TOOTS

Top Independent Films
(In alphabetical order)
AWAY FROM HER
GREAT WORLD OF SOUND
HONEYDRIPPER
IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
A MIGHT HEART
THE NAMESAKE
ONCE
THE SAVAGES
STARTING OUT IN THE EVENING
WAITRESS

Cristian Mungiu’s Romanian entry 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days has been the most talked about foreign movie of the year, since winning the Palm D’Or at Cannes and then winning The European Film Awards prizes for Best Feature and Best Director on Saturday. Many Oscar prognosticators see it as a sure-fire Foreign Language Oscar nominee.

But I think not. I predict it will not be one of the five nominated Foreign Language films. Not because of the abortion theme, but because the style of the movie-making is all but indigestible to American viewers. In the same way that the Dardenne brothers or Bruno Dumont have never been nominated. 4 Months is stark, naturalistic, mirthless, devoid of music, it looks like a documentary or an improvised piece and it’s easy to miss the stand out filmic achievements Mungiu has brilliantly pulled off (starting with the movie’s ironic self-referential title).

nope

yup

The only place this movie could have gotten the attention of Academy voters is the Live Action Short category, which in recent years is the only Oscar category to acknowledge bold, stark European nouveau-realism, such as Andrea Arnold’s Wasp (Arnold’s feature debut, Red Road, was later ignored) or Martin Martin McDonagh’s Six Shooter.

This makes me believe at present the France’s Persepolis is the front runner to win the Foreign Language Oscar. Women love this movie. Beating out nominees The Counterfeiters (Austria), An Unknown Woman (Italy), Days of Darkness (Canada) and Ben X (Belgium).
One of these could also make the list, or at least the short-list of nine finalists: Caramel (Lebanon), Beaufort (Israel) - wouldn’t it be great if the all-male Beaufort, set in Lebanon, will go against the mostly female Lebanese Caramel? - and The Year My Parents Went on Vacation (Brazil). And it’s not far-fetched to believe that the same elderly Academy members that may detest 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days will be fond of the sunny, amusing but old fashioned nipple-fest of I Served the King of England (Czech Republic)